从 2020 美国总统初选开始学习选举流程

美股其实是需要去管理时间窗口的,尤其是在大选年,了解美国候选人的政策方向和时间节点还是比较重要的,所以不如慢慢随着选举的展开学习一下美国的选择制度,侧重点在于流程上和候选人政策理念对市场的影响上

United States Presidential Primary Election

美国总统初选是指在美国总统选举的候选人提名过程中,各州及领地举办的一系列初选(primary election)与党团会议(caucus)。

美国宪法对此并没有任何规定,这是各政党自己逐渐发展出来的一套流程。有些州只举办初选,也有些州只举办党团会议,还有些州两者皆有。每个大选年,各州的初选与党团会议并非同时举行,而是会持续数月,通常于一月下旬或二月上旬开始,于六月中旬结束。各州与当地政府会举行初选,而党团会议则是由各政党自己举行的内部会议。一州的初选或党团会议通常为间接选举,选民并非直接决定总统候选人,而是选出代表参加各党提名大会。这些代表则会在大会上选出各党总统候选人。

Origin from https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/美国总统初选

Caucus

Caucus : 党团会议,“某个政党的地方成员举行会议,推举党内参加代表大会的成员或者指定竞选公职的候选人”。

现在美国有以下的州在总统大选中采用党团会议(Caucus)形式:

  • 科罗拉多(Colorado)

  • 夏威夷(Hawaii)

  • 明尼苏达(Minnesota)

  • 北达科他(North Dakota)

  • 爱奥华(Iowa)

  • 内华达(Nevada)

  • 缅因(Maine)

2020 美国初选 爱奥华州为例

党团会议和我们一般理解的投票选举不一样,参加的人必须聚集在某个地点。任何人都可以站起来发言支持某位候选人。所以竞选活动是党团会议的一个重要部分,所以在党团会议期间,候选人应该尽量派遣大量人员到各个党团会议地点进行游说。

任何登记为政党成员的选民都可以参加党团会议。比如在第一个举行党团会议的爱奥华州99个县共有1774个党团会议集会地点。这些集会地点可以是教会、学校、社区中心等等。

选举结果如无意外一般一两天就会出来,作为今后的选举风向标,可以提前布局相关的板块,比如医药板块

Primary

Primary : 党内初选

现在还没primary,作者困了,以后继续补充

The Democratic Nomination for President

Nominator Slogan
Senator Michael Bennet Building Opportunity Together
Former VP Joe Biden * Our Best Days Still Lie Ahead
Former NY Mayor Mike Bloomberg * A New Choice for Democrats
* Fighting For Our Future
Former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg * A Fresh Start for America
* Win the Era
Rep. Tulsi Gabbard * Lead with Love
* Stand Up with Tulsi
Sen. Amy Klobuchar * Amy for America
* Let’s Get to Work
Former Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick Deval for All
Sen. Bernie Sanders * Not Me. Us.
Billionaire Tom Steyer * Climate Change Cannot Wait
* Actions Speak Louder Than Words
Sen. Elizabeth Warren * * Persist
* Best President Money Can’t Buy
* Warren Has a Plan For That
Businessman Andrew Yang * Humanity First
* Make America Think Harder (MATH)

Rep. for Representative
Sen. for Senator

The Republican Nomination for President

Nominator Slogan
Bill Weld Together We Are Stronger
Donald Trump * * Make America Great Again
* Promises Made, Promises Kept
Joe Walsh Be Brave

2020 Election Calendar

image-20200204073553256

Date State Democratic Republican
February 3 Iowa Caucus Caucus
February 11 New Hampshire Primary Primary
February 22 Nevada Caucus
February 29 South Carolina Primary
March 3 Alabama Primary Primary
American Samoa Caucus
Arkansas Primary Primary
California Primary Primary
Colorado Primary Primary
Democrats Abroad Primary
Maine Primary Primary
Massachusetts Primary Primary
Minnesota Primary Primary
North Carolina Primary Primary
Oklahoma Primary Primary
Tennessee Primary Primary
Texas Primary Primary
Utah Primary Primary
Vermont Primary Primary
Virginia Primary
March 10 Idaho Primary Primary
Michigan Primary Primary
Mississippi Primary Primary
Missouri Primary Primary
North Dakota Primary
Washington Primary Primary
March 12 Virgin Islands Caucus
March 14 Guam Caucus
Northern Mariana Caucus
Wyoming Convention
March 17 Arizona Primary
Florida Primary Primary
Illinois Primary Primary
Northern Mariana Caucus
Ohio Primary Primary
March 24 American Samoa Caucus
Georgia Primary Primary
March 27 North Dakota Convention
March 29 Puerto Rico Primary
April 4 Alaska Primary
Hawaii Primary
Louisiana Primary Primary
Wyoming Caucus
April 7 Wisconsin Primary Primary
April 28 Connecticut Primary Primary
Delaware Primary Primary
Maryland Primary Primary
New York Primary Primary
Pennsylvania Primary Primary
Rhode Island Primary Primary
May 2 Guam Caucus
Kansas Primary
May 5 Indiana Primary Primary
May 12 Nebraska Primary Primary
West Virginia Primary Primary
May 19 Kentucky Primary Primary
Oregon Primary Primary
June 2 District of Columbia Primary Primary
Montana Primary Primary
New Jersey Primary Primary
New Mexico Primary Primary
South Dakota Primary Primary
June 6 Virgin Islands Caucus
June 7 Puerto Rico Primary
July 13 - 16 Democratic Convention (Milwaukee, WI)
August 24 - 27 Republican Convention (Charlotte, NC)
September 29 First Presidential Debate (South Bend, IN)
October 7 Vice Presidential Debate (Salt Lake City, UT)
October 15 Second Presidential Debate (Ann Arbor, MI)
October 22 Third Presidential Debate (Nashville, TN)
November 3 2020 Presidential Election

Reference

美国大选知识:什么是Caucus党团会议
https://www.voachinese.com/a/article-20120103-iowa-caucus-136608523/792485.html

美国总统初选
https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/美国总统初选

2020 Election Calendar
https://www.270towin.com/2020-election-calendar/