美股其实是需要去管理时间窗口的，尤其是在大选年，了解美国候选人的政策方向和时间节点还是比较重要的，所以不如慢慢随着选举的展开学习一下美国的选择制度，侧重点在于流程上和候选人政策理念对市场的影响上
Presidential Primary Election
美国总统初选是指在美国总统选举的候选人提名过程中，各州及领地举办的一系列初选（primary election）与党团会议（caucus）。
美国宪法对此并没有任何规定，这是各政党自己逐渐发展出来的一套流程。有些州只举办初选，也有些州只举办党团会议，还有些州两者皆有。每个大选年，各州的初选与党团会议并非同时举行，而是会持续数月，通常于一月下旬或二月上旬开始，于六月中旬结束。各州与当地政府会举行初选，而党团会议则是由各政党自己举行的内部会议。一州的初选或党团会议通常为间接选举，选民并非直接决定总统候选人，而是选出代表参加各党提名大会。这些代表则会在大会上选出各党总统候选人。
Origin from https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/美国总统初选
党团会议 - Cause 和 党内初选 - Primary 是都是美国总统大选中党内提名候选人的初步程序。
Caucus
Caucus : 党团会议，“某个政党的地方成员举行会议，推举党内参加代表大会的成员或者指定竞选公职的候选人”。
现在美国有以下的州在总统大选中采用党团会议（Caucus）形式：
科罗拉多(Colorado)
夏威夷(Hawaii)
明尼苏达(Minnesota)
北达科他(North Dakota)
爱奥华(Iowa)
内华达(Nevada)
缅因(Maine)
2020 美国初选 爱奥华州为例
党团会议和我们一般理解的投票选举不一样，参加的人必须聚集在某个地点。任何人都可以站起来发言支持某位候选人。所以竞选活动是党团会议的一个重要部分，所以在党团会议期间，候选人应该尽量派遣大量人员到各个党团会议地点进行游说。
任何登记为政党成员的选民都可以参加党团会议。比如在第一个举行党团会议的爱奥华州99个县共有1774个党团会议集会地点。这些集会地点可以是教会、学校、社区中心等等。
选举结果如无意外一般一两天就会出来，作为今后的选举风向标，可以提前布局相关的板块，比如医药板块
Primary
Primary : 党内初选, New Hampshire 选举形势就有别与Iowa的cause，采用初选制度的正是Primary
党内初选 - Primary 是选民在投票日选择任何时间到投票站，投完票就走，不用和其它选民交流，程序比较简单。
党团会议 - Cause 选民要在规定的时间到投票站集合，开会，发言，最后投票；整个过程比较复杂、耗时。
Primary 又分为 Closed Primary, Semi-closed Primary, Open Primary 和 Semi-open Primary
In the United States, other types can be differentiated:
- Closed primary. People may vote in a party’s primary only if they are registered members of that party prior to election day. Independents cannot participate. Note that because some political parties name themselves independent, the terms “non-partisan” or “unaffiliated” often replace “independent” when referring to those who are not affiliated with a political party. Twelve states – Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Kansas, Kentucky, Maine, Maryland, District of Columbia, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, Pennsylvania, and Wyoming – have closed primaries.[4][5]
- Semi-closed. As in closed primaries, registered party members can vote only in their own party’s primary. Semi-closed systems, however, allow unaffiliated voters to participate as well. Depending on the state, independents either make their choice of party primary privately, inside the voting booth, or publicly, by registering with any party on Election Day. Fourteen states – Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Iowa, Kansas, New Hampshire, New Jersey, North Carolina, Ohio,[6] Oregon, Rhode Island, Utah, and West Virginia – have semi-closed primaries that allow voters to register or change party preference on election day.[5][7] Massachusetts allows unenrolled voters or members of minor parties to vote in the primary of either major party, but registration or party changes must be done no fewer than 20 days prior to the primary. [8]
- Open primary. A registered voter may vote in any party primary regardless of his or her own party affiliation. Fourteen states - Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Hawaii, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, South Carolina, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, and Wisconsin - have open primaries.[4] When voters do not register with a party before the primary, it is called a pick-a-party primary because the voter can select which party’s primary he or she wishes to vote in on election day. Because of the open nature of this system, a practice known as raiding may occur. Raiding consists of voters of one party crossing over and voting in the primary of another party, effectively allowing a party to help choose its opposition’s candidate. The theory is that opposing party members vote for the weakest candidate of the opposite party in order to give their own party the advantage in the general election. An example of this can be seen in the 1998 Vermont senatorial primary with the nomination of Fred Tuttle as the Republican candidate in the general election[*citation needed*].
- Semi-open. A registered voter need not publicly declare which political party’s primary that they will vote in before entering the voting booth. When voters identify themselves to the election officials, they must request a party’s specific ballot. Only one ballot is cast by each voter. In many states with semi-open primaries, election officials or poll workers from their respective parties record each voter’s choice of party and provide access to this information. The primary difference between a semi-open and open primary system is the use of a party-specific ballot. In a semi-open primary, a public declaration in front of the election judges is made and a party-specific ballot given to the voter to cast. Certain states that use the open-primary format may print a single ballot and the voter must choose on the ballot itself which political party’s candidates they will select for a contested office.
Origin from : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Primary_election
简而言之, Closed Primary 是仅仅限于本党注册的人士去投票，Semi-closed Primay 是已注册的本党人士和无党籍人士都可以投票，Open Primary 是合法公民都能进行投票
Super Tuesday
超级星期二会通常会决出将近四成的投票结果，Primary 集中度很高，是预测未来总统候选人的政治风向标
Super Tuesday is the election day early in a United States presidential primary season (February or March) when the greatest number of U.S. states hold primary elections and caucuses. More delegates to the presidential nominating conventions can be won on Super Tuesday than on any other single day. Super Tuesday primaries and caucuses occur in many states from geographically and socially diverse regions of the country and typically represent a presidential candidate’s first test of national electability. Candidates must therefore do well on this day to help secure their party’s nomination. Convincing wins in Super Tuesday primaries have usually propelled candidates to their party’s nomination.[*citation needed*]
Origin from: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Tuesday
至于为什么会是星期二，据说是因为最初选举开始的时候，人们因为虔诚的宗教信仰会在周末休息礼拜，而周三会去赶集卖庄稼，农民想去投票需要走很远的路，所以周一和周四夜都不合适，最后就选择了周二。
另外，Super Tuesday 是个 Reginal holiday，估计放假让人去投票站投票吧
Democratic Nomination for President
| Nominator | Slogan | |
|---|---|---|
| Senator Michael Bennet | * | Building Opportunity Together |
| Former VP Joe Biden | * | Our Best Days Still Lie Ahead |
| Former NY Mayor Mike Bloomberg | * | * A New Choice for Democrats * Fighting For Our Future |
| Former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg | * A Fresh Start for America * Win the Era |
|
| Rep. Tulsi Gabbard | * | * Lead with Love * Stand Up with Tulsi |
| Sen. Amy Klobuchar | * | * Amy for America * Let’s Get to Work |
| Former Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick | * | Deval for All |
| Sen. Bernie Sanders | * | Not Me. Us. |
| Billionaire Tom Steyer | * Climate Change Cannot Wait * Actions Speak Louder Than Words |
|
| Sen. Elizabeth Warren | * | * Persist * Best President Money Can’t Buy * Warren Has a Plan For That |
| Businessman Andrew Yang | * Humanity First * Make America Think Harder (MATH) |
Rep. for Representative
Sen. for Senator
Republican Nomination for President
| Nominator | Slogan | |
|---|---|---|
| Bill Weld | Together We Are Stronger | |
| Donald Trump | * | * Make America Great Again * Promises Made, Promises Kept |
| Joe Walsh | Be Brave |
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2020 Election Calendar
| Date | State | Democratic | Republican |
|---|---|---|---|
| February 3 | Iowa | Caucus | Caucus |
| February 11 | New Hampshire | Primary | Primary |
| February 22 | Nevada | Caucus | |
| February 29 | South Carolina | Primary | |
| March 3 | Alabama | Primary | Primary |
| American Samoa | Caucus | ||
| Arkansas | Primary | Primary | |
| California | Primary | Primary | |
| Colorado | Primary | Primary | |
| Democrats Abroad | Primary | ||
| Maine | Primary | Primary | |
| Massachusetts | Primary | Primary | |
| Minnesota | Primary | Primary | |
| North Carolina | Primary | Primary | |
| Oklahoma | Primary | Primary | |
| Tennessee | Primary | Primary | |
| Texas | Primary | Primary | |
| Utah | Primary | Primary | |
| Vermont | Primary | Primary | |
| Virginia | Primary | ||
| March 10 | Idaho | Primary | Primary |
| Michigan | Primary | Primary | |
| Mississippi | Primary | Primary | |
| Missouri | Primary | Primary | |
| North Dakota | Primary | ||
| Washington | Primary | Primary | |
| March 12 | Virgin Islands | Caucus | |
| March 14 | Guam | Caucus | |
| Northern Mariana | Caucus | ||
| Wyoming | Convention | ||
| March 17 | Arizona | Primary | |
| Florida | Primary | Primary | |
| Illinois | Primary | Primary | |
| Northern Mariana | Caucus | ||
| Ohio | Primary | Primary | |
| March 24 | American Samoa | Caucus | |
| Georgia | Primary | Primary | |
| March 27 | North Dakota | Convention | |
| March 29 | Puerto Rico | Primary | |
| April 4 | Alaska | Primary | |
| Hawaii | Primary | ||
| Louisiana | Primary | Primary | |
| Wyoming | Caucus | ||
| April 7 | Wisconsin | Primary | Primary |
| April 28 | Connecticut | Primary | Primary |
| Delaware | Primary | Primary | |
| Maryland | Primary | Primary | |
| New York | Primary | Primary | |
| Pennsylvania | Primary | Primary | |
| Rhode Island | Primary | Primary | |
| May 2 | Guam | Caucus | |
| Kansas | Primary | ||
| May 5 | Indiana | Primary | Primary |
| May 12 | Nebraska | Primary | Primary |
| West Virginia | Primary | Primary | |
| May 19 | Kentucky | Primary | Primary |
| Oregon | Primary | Primary | |
| June 2 | District of Columbia | Primary | Primary |
| Montana | Primary | Primary | |
| New Jersey | Primary | Primary | |
| New Mexico | Primary | Primary | |
| South Dakota | Primary | Primary | |
| June 6 | Virgin Islands | Caucus | |
| June 7 | Puerto Rico | Primary | |
| July 13 - 16 | Democratic Convention (Milwaukee, WI) | ||
| August 24 - 27 | Republican Convention (Charlotte, NC) | ||
| September 29 | First Presidential Debate (South Bend, IN) | ||
| October 7 | Vice Presidential Debate (Salt Lake City, UT) | ||
| October 15 | Second Presidential Debate (Ann Arbor, MI) | ||
| October 22 | Third Presidential Debate (Nashville, TN) | ||
| November 3 | 2020 Presidential Election |
Reference
美国大选知识：什么是Caucus党团会议
https://www.voachinese.com/a/article-20120103-iowa-caucus-136608523/792485.html
美国总统初选
https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/美国总统初选
2020 Election Calendar
https://www.270towin.com/2020-election-calendar/
美国大选知识：什么是党内初选Primary
https://www.voachinese.com/a/article-20120110-the-center-for-voting-and-democracy-137045928/792800.html
Primary Election
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Primary_election
